If you keep riding you will eventually crash....

[MattB]

If you keep riding you will eventually crash....

Not that I haven't crashed, but I was going to disagree. That said, the more that I have thought about it, I can NOT disagree... if you ride long enough, you are going to crash. Initially, I was thinking in the same mindset as Joe (and I'm sorry that I have to admit that).

Also assuming that you are not pushing the envelope.

My initial thought was that if you are lucky enough to build up your skills, while not having a crash in your riding infancy, you will be good so long as you don't "push the envelope"... but it is not so, or at least certainly not guaranteed.

Reflecting back over the past 25 years at the times in which I have crashed, or easily could have, and the causes...

- Gravel unexpectedly on the roadway
- A roadway which very unexpectedly went from near perfect pavement, to gravel, nearly in the apex of the turn
- Fine dust/dirt on the roadway which was nearly as slippy as ice
- Riding through a snow storm
- Riding through a hail storm
- Riding into the path of a coming tornado... true story, think of a time before smart phones and radio's in our helmets/on bikes
- Very sudden gust of wind
- Getting caught off guard by a decreasing radius and/or off camber turn on an unknown road
- Having a motorcycle in your lane, on a TIGHT blind turn, say on US 129
- Random fluid on the roadway from a vehicle (oil, anti-freeze, etc)
- Animal roadway Influencers... deer, turkey, vulcher, bears, mountain lion, groundhog, possum, turtle, HORSE, cows/steers (all experienced)
- Riding a twisty road at a rather enjoyable pace, only to encounter an Amish/Mennonite horse and buggy just around a corner (with oncoming traffic in the other lane)
- Encountering a road closed gate across the road while slowly riding the Blue Ridge Parkway in a fog so dense I couldn't see my faceshield
- Riding while overly exhausted, due to _____________________
- A driver that seemingly wants to kill you just for fun/sport I was following some hooligans at a rally and don't know if somebody before me did something to deserve an attempt being made on my life or not, but there's that.
- Inattentive driver on a cell phone

Other thoughts that haven't happened to me...
- Finding a car top carrier on the highway on a dark night (buddy of mine, some of you might know Bmorganjr )
- mechanical failure at the wrong moment

I'm likely omitting others, but these came to mind quite easily sitting here thinking about it.

So, yes... if you ride long enough, I'm going to suggest that eventually you will crash. While some things are well within your control, even if your right wrist is not one of them, there are so many things outside of your control that sometimes you need a large helping of LUCK to go with those skills and experience which you have built up.

All that said, I really can not imagine my life without motorcycles in it. Ride Fast, Take Chances.

[955i]

Totally agree, Matt. I've crashed a few times. Some were my fault, some were absolutely random bad luck.

"All that said, I really can not imagine my life without motorcycles in it. Ride Fast, Take Chances." Exactly!

[Loggiebone]

[802Mike]

Crash early on and get it out of the way !

[BillGsa]

On the other hand if you live long enough you're going to die

[802Mike]

I was going to say that, then I scrolled down.
My dad used to say, "If you live long enough you'll die of something." He lived to 87 and died of a massive heart attack.
Another guy would say, "He who dies with the most toys wins." He died a few years ago and you should see the shit he
left his wife to deal with getting rid of.

[cabnfvr]

Here ya go ...

Cause ...............Deaths per yr ...lifetime odds

Skin cancer	8,461	1 in 457
Pedestrian accident	5,958	1 in 649
Motorcycle accident	5,024	1 in 770
Bicycle accident	820	1 in 4,717

The way odds work is kinda weird in a way. Using the numbers above if you ride 770 times with no accident your next ride is still, and always will be, 1 in 770. That's 1 in 770 today, tomorrow, and 10 years from now, whether riding every day or once a year. But just like statistics, the numbers are just that, numbers. There are so many factors that influence the results that "statistics" can be used to prove, or disprove, almost anything. Matt's right, build your skills and your luck gets better. But ride long enough and ........

[Loggiebone]

[802Mike]

The way I read it is that 1 in 770 people will die.

[Loggiebone]

Yeh, and then there's the 'length of ride" part. If you take a ride and it's 20 miles, that obviously doesn't compare equally to a ride of 200 miles. I guess it's the equation of crashes per miles ridden...

[cabnfvr]

Numbers are just numbers. They give a general idea but in the end show me the numbers you want and I can prove it.

[802Mike]

Most accidents happen within a few mile of home.... so take longer rides?

[Karlb]

Only up to 769 miles lol

[MattB]

Most accidents happen within a few mile of home.... so take longer rides?

I've heard this before....

1) I suppose in some ways it would make sense since you likely ride "within a few mile of home" (a very subjective number, would be anything inside 100 miles for me) more often than your ride anywhere else.

2) I'm not superstitious and also not buying into this... nearly all of my issues have come on the same road (US129), and no, it's not within a few miles of home (although I certainly wish that it was).

[Loggiebone]

[justjoe]

Never go on the weekend! Or if you do, go before the squids wake up.

[Loggiebone]

What time are you usually there? ????

[justjoe]

I'll leave my house at 6:30 or 7 am, be there before 8 am and gone by 9 am to ride elsewhere.

[BillGsa]

Does this apply to driving a car too? It should.

[wildbears]

See crash poll @ https://theriderspace.com/forum/main...944-crash-poll

[cjs350]

I've crashed enough times to have covered about all the variables that Matt set out earlier in this thread. Yet every time I pull the bike out of the garage I don't start with the thought that, "Oh no, I could crash!" I start with the thought that I can't wait to get out of here and on the road.

Having said that, as one of my engineer friends so aptly stated, "The natural resting position of a motorcycle is not vertical." And as one of my physician friends said, "Life is a fatal illness."

So, I continue to ride to eat, and eat to ride......... and avoid the next, "Oh shit, bang..." moment.

[cabnfvr]

True, "The natural resting position of a motorcycle is not vertical." But at speed the natural position is upright, so we just need to never slow down.

[Loggiebone]

I like the way you think, Tall One?

[Capnrip]